US-China Trade War

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Expectations of various policy measures including some type of a stimulus package by the government to reverse the slowdown is expected to aide the domestic equity indices to consolidate in the upcoming truncated trade week.

Additionally, the key indices will likely trade with a minor positive bias over hopes on announcement over a roll-back of super-rich tax surcharge issue that has spooked FPIs.

“The market is likely to consolidate amid range bound trade with a minor positive bias,” Deepak Jasani, research head,  HDFC Securities told IANS.

“Apart from the economic data and results, developments on the US-China trade tiff, Chinese Yuan direction and locally the response of the government to the industry demands to tackle slowdown will be keenly tracked.”

Last week, industry representatives from various sectors met Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to apprise her of the grim slowdown situation.

The issue faced by the FPIs were also discussed. There are speculation that after the meet the government might roll-back the budgetary proposal that has caused the massive outflows of foreign funds.

Market participants fear that once implemented, the proposal will adversely impact FPIs, which are set up as non-corporate vehicles.

Typically, FPIs are set up as trusts or limited partnerships in their home jurisdictions. The definition of a partnership firm under the Indian tax law refers to the Indian Partnership Act, which does not recognise foreign partnerships or limited partnerships.

Lately, both the issues have dented business confidence in the country.

“Market was hoping for more than 20 per cent growth in corporate earnings in FY20 for Nifty50 index stocks while Q1FY20 has started on a muted note. Out of Nifty50, of the 40 stocks announced results, the earnings growth is about 10 per cent YoY versus expectation of 15 per cent,” said Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Financial Services.

“While interest rate cut is expected to provide some respite for the market in the near term. Going ahead investor’s will closely monitor government measures on supporting growth and FPIs tax issues.”

This week, companies like Coal India, EIH, National Aluminium Company, ONGC, Power Finance Corp, Reliance Infra, Sun Pharma, GIC, GMR Infra, Jindal Steel & Power, Reliance Capital and Suzlon Energy are expected to announce their quarterly results.

Besides results, macro-economic inflation data points such as the consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI) for July will set the tone for the key indices.

“Going forward inflation number, rupee movement, foreign inflow, outflow and global cues among others will give direction to the markets,” said DK Aggarwal, chairman and managing director, SMC Investments & Advisors.

In terms of currency, the rupee on a weekly basis weakened by Rs. 1.22 to close at 70.81 from its previous week’s close of 69.59 per greenback.

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